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Every week during the NFL season, I put out an article broadly calling the winner of each game. Through the first 13 weeks, I had predicted over 56% of our “bets” correctly. Last week, the lines did not look good to me at all throughout the week and I figured they’d move some and wound up putting out an article after the games had started, so we won’t count last week, okay?
Let’s just get to the games.
Thursday Night Football (HOME TEAM IN CAPS, pick in bold)
Chargers vs. RAIDERS -3.5
This is a must-win game for the Raiders and as much as I want the world for Justin Herbert, I think human will wins out and so does Las Vegas at home. That said, that .5 bugs me, so bettor beware. Take the Raiders to win straight up if you feel so strongly.
Saturday NFL Football (this is not a typo)
Bills -6 vs. BRONCOS (4:30pm)
I will admit that my wife likes Dalton Risner (as a person) and I’m fond of Drew Lock (as a young quarterback) and the Broncos’ future, but this year isn’t the year and the Bills are about to be the AFC East Champion. I think this game could be close, but I’ll take the Bills by a tudder FTW!
Panthers vs. PACKERS -8.5 (8:15pm)
The Packers aren’t losing this game and Teddy Bridgewater is the reason this game is close. That doesn’t mean it can’t be close! I’d take the Pack as part of a parlay or something.
Sunday NFL Football
Jaguars vs. RAVENS -12.5
I’m leery anytime the spread gets into double digits and I’m sure the Ravens are going to blow out the Jaguars just like Vegas says and all. However, I’m more likely to take the points and the Jags than bet the Ravens to cover, but I do get paid to write this. Bet with your heart. Made money bets the Ravens to win straight up as part of a parlay. Riskiest to take the Jags, then the Jags and points and then the Ravens to cover, IMHO.
Texans vs. COLTS -7.5
The Colts are about a touchdown better than the Texans on any given Sunday, so can you see how this spread is a trap from the jump? I whole-heartedly think the Colts win, but I believe it’s by a touchdown or less. This means we just bet the Colts to win straight up as part of a parlay or something. Ahem.
Seahawks -6 vs. WASHINGTON
Keep in mind that if you take a snapshot of all of the results of football game over time, the average score is 23-20. The Seahawks are probably going to win this game. My concern is that the Seahawks are terrible on defense and even though Washington may be starting Haskins, even Haskins can score on the Seahawks, I’m confident of it. Again, bet this straight up and make money at least.
Buccaneers -6 vs. FALCONS
Things I know. The Bucs are better on both sides of the ball than the Falcons and should win this game going away. However, there is no mercy rule in the NFL.
Patriots vs. DOLPHINS -1
As Stephen Reed pointed out on our weekly podcast Afternoon Pancakes, the Patriots have struggled in Miami. The Dolphins win and keep their Playoff hopes alive.
Lions vs. TITANS -11
As much as I like Matt Stafford, there isn’t anything else to see here. The Titans should steamroll the Lions because they’re weak and powerless on offense and defense.
Bears vs. VIKINGS -3
I don’t trust either of these teams to do what they’re supposed to do, and the line tells me it’s literally a coin-toss, so I’ll go with Minnesota to win straight up at home.
49ers -3 vs. COWBOYS
The Cowboys are harmless without Dak Prescott. There, I said it. Get destroyed at home, too.
Jets vs. RAMS -17.5
There’s a new certainty in life here in 2020. If you look hard enough, you can see the Jets getting blown out every weekend. Every now and then they muster some talent and get the job done. That said, I think the Rams are about two touchdowns better than the Jets this week.
Eagles vs. CARDINALS -6
Remember, Jalen Hurts is starting for the Eagles at quarterback. I think the Cardinals are the better team and do get the win here.
Chiefs -3 vs. SAINTS +3
One thing you won’t catch me doing is betting against Patrick Mahomes. As long as he and the bulk of that Chiefs offense is healthy, they aren’t losing. Even if Drew Brees miraculously heals and plays, they simply can’t keep up. Besides, it’s Week 15. The refs aren’t letting the Saints win.
Browns -6 vs. GIANTS
The Browns aren’t getting that cover love simply because I don’t trust them. I think they win.
Monday Night Football
Steelers -12.5 vs. BENGALS
As much as I think the Steelers are false prophets, the Bengals have no hope in winning this game. Could be closer than 13 points, but I highly doubt it.
Something to think about as I reread my work. Instead of betting winners, you can always just take the points on an underdog. I try to show you different looks so that people don’t just copy bets and blame me for losing money. Keep that in mind.
Hey! Happy holidays! Please wear a mask!