Week 1 of the NFL season brings plenty of intriguing storylines as teams begin their pursuit of Super Bowl LIII. NFL odds have been on the move for weeks now, and they’ll continue to change as kickoffs approach. The defending champion Eagles, for example, opened as four-point favorites, but with Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery out, they’re now favored by only one in the Thursday night NFL Kickoff against Atlanta. The Raiders were just 2.5-point underdogs for their Monday night opener against the Rams, but that’s jumped to four points after dealing away Khalil Mack. With NFL odds swinging from side to side, you’ll want to see the Week 1 NFL picks and projections from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. 

This proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

Now it has simulated every snap of Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season 10,000 times and its Week 1 NFL picks are in. 

One pick from the computer we’ll give away: Carolina (-3) survives at home against Dallas, but it’ll be closer than Vegas thinks. 

The computer is projecting an efficient performance for Dak Prescott where he completes 20-of-30 passes for 215 yards and one touchdown. Ezekiel Elliott, meanwhile, adds over 100 yards of total offense, while receiver Allen Hurns leads the new-look group of receivers with 44 yards.

Carolina gets 187 yards through the air from Cam Newton and almost 40 more on the ground as the Panthers survive by only one point, 22-21. Back Dallas against the spread because the Cowboys cover it in over half of simulations.

Another Week 1 NFL pick we’ll give away: The Green Bay Packers (-7.5) will get a big victory in Aaron Rodgers’ return against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. 

The Bears are hoping offseason acquisitions like receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton help revitalize their offense. And over the weekend, they traded for 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. However, the model is calling for only 18 points for Chicago and for Green Bay to cover the 7.5-point spread at Lambeau Field. It’s calling for the Packers to hold the Bears to under 100 yards rushing and for Davante Adams to find the end zone. You can also confidently back the Under (47.5) because that hits in 60 percent of simulations.

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge AFC showdown between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, and it’s also calling for one Super Bowl contender to come flying out of the gates with a monumental victory that doubles the spread. You can get all these NFL picks only over at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 44.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+4, 45.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 46)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 40.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (+3, 43.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 49.5)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 48.5)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1.5, 45)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 48)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 43)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 44)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 47.5)
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 45)
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4, 49.5)

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